[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061225
SWODY1
SPC AC 061221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S
AQQ 40 E TOI 10 NE CSG 55 WSW AGS 20 ESE CHS ...CONT... 40 SE DAB 10
ESE AGR 20 W FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CLE LUK HOP 35
SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4 ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF FST 10 E ABI MKO
JEF BRL LNR 50 SW IWD 95 NW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL
MEI TCL ANB 40 WNW AHN CLT LYH 25 SSW NHK 30 SSE DOV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS FL...GA...SERN
AL...EXTREME SRN SC...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS FCST AS
UPPER LOW NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MN/NWRN ONT MERGES WITH LOW
OVER MANITOBA...THEN PIVOTS EWD-NEWD OVER FAR NWRN ONT.  ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NWRN WI/ERN IA SWWD ACROSS MO AND
SWRN OK -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES...SEWD ACROSS
MID MS VALLEY...AND SWD OVER MUCH OF TX...AS PARENT CYCLONE LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS NERN ONT.  MEANWHILE TS FRANCES DOMINATES PATTERN ACROSS
SERN CONUS.

...SERN CONUS...
TS FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NWWD ACROSS APALACHEE BAY
TOWARD LANDFALL CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...REF LATEST NHC GUIDANCE UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND
TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS.  OCCASIONAL MINI-SUPERCELLS AND
BRIEF/SMALL TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR EXTENDING SE THROUGH N OF CENTER -- PRIMARILY IN MIDDLE-OUTER
BANDS WHERE DIABATIC HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL BOOST IN SBCAPE
WILL BE GREATEST.  150-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER POSSIBLE
WITHIN ZONE OF LARGEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES...ALONG WITH LOW LCL
AND MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG.  REF WWS 803/804 AND RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING TORNADO THREAT WITH TS
FRANCES.

...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT
TODAY...FROM PORTIONS ERN WI/LM/IL/UPPER MI SWD THROUGH INDIANA. 
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL -- AS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
COUNTERACT EFFECTS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MID-UPPER
60S F. STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION
ALOFT IS LIFTING WELL N AND NW OF AREA BUT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST
MARGINAL PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING GUSTS...MAINLY BEFORE 00Z.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 09/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.