[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060513
SWODY1
SPC AC 060509

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
JAX 25 SE GNV 30 S CTY ...CONT... PFN 35 NE CEW 10 ESE AUO 50 ENE
MCN 35 SW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 30 NE FST
35 W ABI 55 NW MLC 50 S SZL 30 SW BRL 40 E ALO 30 ENE RST 65 NNW EAU
55 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 ENE CLE 25 WNW LUK 20 NW HOP 35 SSE GLH 35
SW HEZ 15 S 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL
25 NNE LUL 10 NW TCL 10 WNW ANB 40 WNW AHN 20 SSW CLT 20 N RDU 35 NE
RIC 30 SSE DOV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL INTO SRN
GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SERN
ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND STRONG ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. MEANWHILE...T.S. FRANCES IS FORECAST
 TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL COAST
OF THE FL PANHANDLE...THEN TURN NWD INTO SERN AL BY 04/12Z.  SEE
LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC/TPC FOR LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES.


...PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL INTO SRN GA...

AS THE CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
THEN TURNS NWD INTO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...FAVORABLE FORWARD
QUADRANT FOR BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NRN FL INTO PARTS OF SRN GA AND EXTREME SRN SC.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM WRN UPPER MI SWD THRU CENTRAL WI...NERN MO AND S CENTRAL
OK SWWD INTO EXTREME W TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  AIR MASS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS IT MOVED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO AS IT
MOVES EWD AND NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT.  BETTER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY 06/12Z.  LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SERN ONTARIO AS WELL AS
90-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.  THUS...BETTER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO
MOVE NEWD OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD.

THIS SHOULD LEAVE LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ONLY SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS/DAMAGING WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.