[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060102
SWODY1
SPC AC 060058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
VRB 20 NNW AGR 15 NW PIE ...CONT... 10 SW PFN 30 NE DHN 40 NNE ABY
55 N AYS 20 ESE SAV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
CNU 25 E MHK 20 ESE BIE 20 WSW OMA 30 ESE YKN 25 ESE MHE 20 ENE HON
50 NNE ATY 15 SSW BRD 55 SSE DLH 30 SE EAU 35 NNW DBQ 40 NE IRK 55
SSW IRK 15 ESE OJC 40 N CNU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 20 SW MAF
40 E PVW 60 SW GAG 30 SE DDC 55 N RSL 10 WNW GRI 65 NNE BUB 45 WSW
9V9 40 N PIR 45 NE MBG 25 W RRT ...CONT... 40 SE ANJ 15 NW MKG 20 NW
CMI 15 N JBR 30 N ESF 40 WSW 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PNS 30 NNE TOI
40 NW MCN 20 SW CAE FAY 20 ENE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL AND SRN
GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WHILE T.S. FRANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD OVER THE W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.  SQUALL LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTEND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER SERN SD SWD THRU ERN NE AND CENTRAL
KS...THROUGH A LOW OVER NWRN OK...THEN SWWD ACROSS THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SRN NM.

...FLORIDA AND SRN GA...

SEE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM NHC/TPC ON T.S. FRANCES.  FORECASTS
INDICATE THAT CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES WILL TURN TO THE RIGHT TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE PLACING FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT.

...PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL MN SWD THROUGH CENTRAL
IA AND NWRN MO INTO S CENTRAL KS.  AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR/AROUND 6.0C/KM.  LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-55 KT EXTENDS FROM ERN KS
NWD INTO E CENTRAL MN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO E
CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI.  COMBINE THIS WITH MID LEVEL SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
OF 60-65 KT AND A SWLY 95-105 UPPER LEVEL JET PLACES STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO VERY
DIVERGENT FROM MO INTO MN ENHANCING UVVS SUPPORTING LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS WRN AREAS OF WI OVERNIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO/NERN MN BY
06/12Z.  THUS...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NERN MN SWD THROUGH
ERN IA INTO SWRN MO AND S CENTRAL OK BY 12Z.  STRONG WINDS MAY BE
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS PARALLEL LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT NEWD TOWARDS THE MN/CANADA BORDER.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.