[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050104
SWODY1
SPC AC 050100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
TLH 20 ESE VLD 10 SSE SSI ...CONT... 15 ENE MIA 45 W MIA 40 S FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 50 SE PHX
30 WSW INW 25 SW PGA 20 W BCE 40 WSW U24 50 NNW DPG MLD 30 W JAC 50
S COD 35 SSW GCC 45 NW PHP 40 SE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 85 NW CMX
30 NW EAU 45 WSW FOD 25 SSW CNK 20 S GCK 35 W PVW 20 ESE INK 90 SSE
MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LRD 15 W AUS
55 E ACT 35 SSE PRX 40 SSW HOT 35 SSE PBF 40 ESE MLU 15 ESE HEZ 30 S
GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN ABY 40 SSE
AGS FLO 10 NNW OAJ 30 ESE EWN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...FL PENINSULA...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED 40 NE PBI AT 0030Z...AND
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A SLOW WWD MOVEMENT.  TPC FORECAST
BRINGS THE CENTER OF FRANCES ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...AND THEN TRACK W/WNWWD TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 12Z SUNDAY.  TROPICAL TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
RIGHT QUADRANT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA. 
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE EYEWALL...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
WILL REMAIN STRONG /0-1 KM SHEAR AT 30-40 KT/ THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SUPPORTING THE TORNADO THREAT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO NWRN MN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH ERN CO BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MN SWWD ACROSS NRN NEB TO ERN CO.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM NERN CO NEWD TO ERN SD ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS ALLOWED PARCELS TO REACH
THEIR LFC.  GIVEN THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL
DECREASE.  

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO NEB/SD OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ENEWD SUPPORTING A COUPLED MID-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40 KT NOSING INTO NEB/SD. 
THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO SD...WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUPPORTING ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 09/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.