[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041953
SWODY1
SPC AC 041949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
MIA 55 E FMY 35 N FMY 35 ENE PIE 30 SE GNV 45 SSE JAX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
SAD 55 WNW SAD 60 ENE PHX 30 SW INW 35 NNE INW 15 WSW DRO 50 E DRO
50 S ALS 15 ENE SAF 15 SE ABQ 45 NNE SAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CMX 25 NW EAU 45
SW FOD 25 SSW CNK 25 E LBL 40 ESE CVS 50 WSW INK 65 SSW MRF
...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 E ADM 10 SSW UMN 35 E
UIN 30 NE MKE 40 N TVC 40 SSE ANJ 80 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 35
NNE UCA 40 W ALB 20 NNE MSV 20 N ABE 30 NNW BWI 40 W SHD 20 WSW BLF
30 NNE TYS 10 S HSV 25 SW TCL 60 SE MEI 35 N PNS 35 SW DHN 40 WSW
ABY 55 SW AGS 35 WSW FLO 15 ESE GSB 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN
35 WSW GBN 55 WSW PRC 25 WSW GCN 20 W BCE 55 E ELY 15 SW ENV 35 SE
BYI 45 SE IDA 35 WNW LND 50 E RIW 15 SSE GCC 45 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AZ AND NW NM...

...CNTRL AND ERN FL...
HURRICANE FRANCES IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH FL. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING NWWD REACHING
THE IMMEDIATE FL COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE VERY HEAVY
RAINBANDS NWWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN FL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB
HAS INCREASED TODAY AND WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER APPROACHES THE SHORELINE. AS A RESULT...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS. THE
ROTATING STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVY RAINBANDS AND ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS FL LATE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER
BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND.

...ERN AZ/NW NM...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OF 60 KT...LOCATED ACROSS NE
AZ AND SW CO. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN AZ AND
NWRN NM. AT ABQ...THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT 19Z SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 55 KT. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM
250 TO 750 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD
REACHING SCNTRL CO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

...DAKOTAS...
A LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM FAR NW MN TO CNTRL SD.
BROADSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 250 TO 500 J/KG. AND THIS
COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.