[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041702
SWODY1
SPC AC 041658

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI
AGR 40 WNW ORL 25 ESE GNV 40 SE JAX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
PHX 40 SSE PRC 30 NE INW 15 NW FMN 40 ENE DRO 25 S ALS 35 NNE SAF 15
SE ABQ 40 N SAD 15 NE PHX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 20 N GBN
55 SW GCN CDC 55 ESE ELY 25 NNE ENV 35 NNE BYI 30 NE IDA 20 WSW WRL
50 SW GCC 20 E 81V 25 WSW Y22 40 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 30 NE
IWD EAU MCW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS 40 WNW FST 90 S MRF ...CONT... 10
SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 ESE ADM 25 SSE UMN 20 S SGF 10 SW STL
30 NNW DNV 20 NW BEH 40 SSE MBL 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 25 N SYR 45
ENE UCA 30 SE GFL EWR 30 WNW ABE 10 S AOO 35 SSW CRW 20 NE CHA 25 W
ANB 25 NW CEW MAI 25 NNW CAE 20 N RWI 15 NE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AZ/NW NM AND
SW CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER W CNTRL UT EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE E INTO
CNTRL/ERN CO BY 12Z SUNDAY AS SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE BC CST CONTINUES
E/SE INTO SRN BC.  FARTHER E...BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG SSW FLOW
OVER THE NRN PLNS SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO
LIFT NEWD IN MANITOBA...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM
FROM UT/CO TROUGH.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST... PATTERN WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY HRCN FRANCES.  THE TPC FCSTS FRANCES TO MAINTAIN A SLOW
WNW MOTION...WITH LANDFALL POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO...
BELT OF STRONG /50+ KT/ MID LEVEL WSW FLOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM NRN AZ
INTO NW NM/SW CO LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS AND
CONTINUES EWD. AREA SOUNDINGS/SURFACE DATA AND MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STRONG
STORMS FROM CNTRL/ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO...WHERE AVERAGE PWS ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 1 INCH.  EWD MOTION OF UPPER SYSTEM HAS ALSO ALLOWED
COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS TO OVERSPREAD REGION...WITH THE 500 MB
MINUS 10 C ISOTHERM CURVING S INTO THE RIM COUNTRY.  THIS...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH 50+ KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...MAY
PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION IN A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY.

SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE ACROSS REGION TO
AOA 500 J/KG.  BUT HEATING WILL BE DIMINISHED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY
...ESPECIALLY IN SW CO AND NW NM.  IN ADDITION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM T.S. HOWARD WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN AZ.  TAKEN IN
SUMMARY...EXPECT A FEW BANDS OF SUSTAINED/OCCASIONALLY ROTATING
STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HAIL AND
HIGH WIND POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

...CNTRL/NRN PLNS...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW MN INTO NE CO EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO
AOA 1000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME
AS BAND OF STRONGEST UPPER FLOW SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...AMPLE
/30-40 KT/ SHEAR WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM SW NEB NEWD INTO CNTRL SD.  A FEW
STORM/STORM CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY AFFECT
THIS AREA LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. FARTHER
N...ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CELLS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM WRN NEB/SD INTO ND/NW MN.

...FL...
POTENTIAL FOR HRCN-RELATED TORNADOES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
PERIOD AS FRANCES CONTINUES SLOWLY WNWWD.  THE NNW TO ESE SECTOR OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WILL NOT REACH THE
COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME... CONVECTION ALONG
CONFLUENCE BANDS ON THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION THROUGH THE DAY. 
HEATING OF INFLOW ENVIRONMENT OVER NRN/CNTRL FL MAY SUFFICIENTLY
ELEVATE CAPE TO BOLSTER THIS THREAT.  BUT SATELLITE/RADAR AND
SURFACE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF COMPARATIVELY DRY
OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WHICH WOULD TEND TO OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY INNER
CIRCULATION OF VORTEX AS IT MOVES ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.