[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040541
SWODY1
SPC AC 040536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
PBI 40 S AGR 40 NW AGR 30 SE GNV 20 ESE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT 25 S UMN 10
NNE ALN 25 NNE BMI RFD 20 N DBQ 30 SSW ALO 25 SSW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE
CVS 10 ENE CNM 60 WNW MRF ...CONT... YUM 60 NW GBN 50 SW GCN 25 ENE
SGU 45 WNW MLF 15 SE ENV 25 NW MLD 20 WSW JAC 35 SSE COD 50 SW GCC
60 NW CDR 20 WSW PHP 35 SSW JMS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 20 NW ART 35 N
GFL 15 SSW PWM ...CONT... 20 NE NEL 30 NNW ILG 10 S CRW 55 NW CHA 10
E MEI 25 NNE BVE ...CONT... 15 ENE AQQ 35 NNE ABY 45 NNW AGS 20 NNE
RDU 35 SSW WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...FL...

HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF
FL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL ROTATE
INLAND AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED LATE LANDFALL AND THE WWD MOTION...IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD BE FOR MAINLY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER NV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT EJECT INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AS A
RESULT...DOWNSTREAM SFC FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
12-36HRS EXTENDING FROM NRN MN...SWWD ACROSS NEB INTO NERN CO WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS WIND
SHIFT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ZONE SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE FRONT THUS SLOWING
SFC HEATING FOR POTENTIAL WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT.  IN
FACT...INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WHERE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT FOR PARCELS TO REACH
THEIR LFC.  STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING FROM WRN KS INTO
SWRN MN FAVORS AN INCREASING BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF
1000J/KG OR LESS.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE ALONG WIND SHIFT.

..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.