[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041256
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI
AGR 40 WNW ORL 25 ESE GNV 40 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK 45 W ABE 20 S AOO
35 SSW CRW 20 NE CHA 25 W ANB 25 NW CEW MAI 25 NNW CAE 20 N RWI 15
NE ORF ...CONT... 20 NNW ART 35 N GFL PSM ...CONT... 30 NE IWD EAU
MCW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS CNM 60 WNW MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35
ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 ESE ADM 25 SSE UMN 20 S SGF 10 SW STL 30 NNW DNV
20 NW BEH 40 SSE MBL 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 55 ESE YUM 40 NW GBN 50
SW GCN CDC 55 ESE ELY 35 ESE ENV MLD JAC WRL 50 SW GCC 70 NW CDR 30
NW PHP 40 ESE BIS 75 N GFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES WRN CONUS MEAN
TROUGH AND RIDGE FROM LOWER MS VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY.  PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CYCLONE ALOFT - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER UT -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD AND MOVE ACROSS 4-CORNERS
REGION TONIGHT.  SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM NWRN MN SWWD
ACROSS WRN CO -- SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH ABOUT 05/06Z...FOLLOWED
BY SOME EWD DRIFT THEREAFTER.  MEANWHILE...BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE E-CENTRAL FL COASTLINE
LATE IN PERIOD.  REF LATEST NHC STATEMENTS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL
WATCHES/WARNINGS.

...FL PENINSULA...
HURRICANE-SPAWNED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
GRADUALLY ACROSS AREA THROUGH PERIOD...AS MORE OF CIRCULATION OF
FRANCES IMPINGES UPON AREA.  SECTOR CONTAINING MOST FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR -- GENERALLY NNW-ESE OF CENTER -- SHOULD SPREAD WNWWD
OVER AREA.  EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS
NEAREST TO VORTEX CENTER.  HOWEVER...EXPECT SUPERCELL/TORNADO
PROBABILITIES WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED NEAR PERIPHERY OF
CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE -- OVER CENTRAL FL...BECAUSE OF
1. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED SBCAPE AWAY
FROM MOST DENSE CLOUD/PRECIP CANOPY...
2. MORE DISTINCT/DISCRETE CHARACTER OF CELLS EXPECTED WITHIN OUTER
BANDS...
3. SOMEWHAT LESS VERTICAL UNIFORMITY OF WINDS AND LARGER LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH DISTANCE FROM CENTER OF HURRICANE...YIELDING
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS...AND
4. GRADIENT OF MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EVIDENT BETWEEN DRIER
TBW/JAX RAOBS AND NEARLY SATURATED MFL SOUNDING...AND SHOULD REMAIN
OVER CENTRAL FL MOST OF PERIOD.

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AREA...
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SERVE AS MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS THROUGH PERIOD. 
INITIALLY ELEVATED TSTMS BEHIND FRONT THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
DIABATIC HEATING AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATED SFC MOISTURE IN WARM SECTOR
CONTRIBUTE TO BUOYANCY...AND CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR FRONT. 
MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON MODIFIED LBF RAOB AND
RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS.  HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS.

...NRN AZ...4-CORNERS REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING IN AREA OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...E THROUGH S OF STRONG UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA MAY INTENSIFY THROUGH TODAY AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING RAISES
MLCAPES TO 300-800 J/KG RANGE. MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH PERIOD...ADVECTED NEWD FROM WEAKENING REMAINS OF
PACIFIC HURRICANE HOWARD.  MORNING FLG RAOB INDICATES FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BENEATH 50 KT MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX.  ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 09/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.