[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 032001
SWODY1
SPC AC 031957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
PHX 40 S PRC 30 NW PRC 20 NNW GCN 20 W PGA 25 WNW U17 30 ENE CNY 15
NNE GJT 35 N MTJ DRO 45 E SOW 50 SSW SOW 45 E PHX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 10 SSW IGM
35 NNW IGM 20 ESE LAS 65 NE DAG 20 ENE NID 55 NNW NID 15 WNW BIH 35
SW U31 35 SE EKO 20 E JAC 35 W MLS 60 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT BWD 30 E
FYV 10 NNE ALN 40 S CGX 25 S ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ART 30 SW ROC 25
SE HLG 35 WSW AVL 20 WSW AHN 40 SE AHN 25 W CAE 20 SE GSO 30 WSW NHK
15 SSE EWR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM 30 NW BGR 25 NNE
PBG 40 NNE ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 W IWD 10
WSW FOD 15 NNW CNK 40 NW LBL 40 N TCC 20 W 4CR 25 E DUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ...SE UT AND
WRN CO...

...AZ/FOUR CORNERS...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US. A
BAND OF STRONG-LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS PRESENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN
CO...UT AND NWRN AZ AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO SRN UT AND WRN AZ. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 40 DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS FAR NRN
AZ...SE UT AND WRN CO. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO
OCCUR CNTRL AZ. HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXCEED 8.0 C/KM OVER
MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD  STEADILY INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER-TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS A LARGE-CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
REACHING ERN AZ LATE TONIGHT.

...DAKOTAS/HIGH PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM NE ND EXTENDING SWWD INTO
SCNTRL WY. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT SFC
HEATING SHOULD CAUSE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
INITIATE STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS FAR NW NEB...CNTRL SD
AND ERN ND. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN US TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...DECREASING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN FL...
HURRICANE FRANCES WILL APPROACH THE FL COAST TONIGHT. OUTER
RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY
STILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES. IF A TORNADO
THREAT MATERIALIZES...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ROTATING CELLS THAT
COME ONSHORE EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS.

..BROYLES.. 09/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.