[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031637
SWODY1
SPC AC 031633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
PHX 55 NNW GBN 30 SE IGM 20 WNW GCN 15 NW PGA 15 W 4BL CEZ 30 SSW
FMN 40 S GUP 25 NW SAD 35 SSE PHX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW YUM 20 N BLH
30 N EED 40 ENE LAS 30 NNW LAS 60 NE DAG 10 NE NID 25 SSE BIH 60 NW
TPH 50 SSW EKO 55 SSE TWF 25 WSW PIH 35 NW JAC 40 SW COD 25 WNW WRL
25 NE WRL 25 ENE SHR 15 ESE GDV 50 N ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DRT 10 W TPL
35 SE MLC 35 SW HRO 25 SSW TBN 25 E ALN DEC 40 W CGX 25 SSE MKE 50
SW HTL 25 NNE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNW ANJ 25 SW ELO
45 N BRD BKX BBW 25 WNW MCK 50 E LIC 20 WSW LHX 50 WSW CAO 35 SE LVS
30 E ONM 40 SSE DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE ERI 10 SSE PIT
10 SE CRW 30 SSE TRI 15 NW AHN 55 ESE MCN 25 N SAV 30 SSE FLO 35 WNW
OAJ 45 NNW RWI 45 N RIC 25 NNW SBY 30 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW EPM 30 NE AUG
15 SSW MWN 20 SSW MPV 25 SE SLK 10 E MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ AND SRN UT/SW
CO/NW NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN NV EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY E AROUND BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND
SHOULD REACH WRN UT BY 12Z SATURDAY.  SMALLER SCALE VORT SHOWN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SWD ACROSS OVER CNTRL CA ATTM SUGGESTS
THAT NV SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN/BECOME MORE CLOSED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

FARTHER N...SEPARATE CLOSED SYSTEM IN SE AB SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA IN SE QUADRANT OF
SYSTEM MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS WY/ERN MT/ND INTO SASKATCHEWAN/
MANITOBA.

OVER THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MODULATED BY
PATH/INTENSITY/SPEED OF HRCN FRANCES.  SEE TPC PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.


...S CNTRL AZ INTO SRN/ERN UT AND WRN CO...
THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN DESERTS AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF E/SE MOVING NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  MORNING
RAOBS SHOW RATHER SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PWS AOA 1
INCH/ SPREADING NNE/NE FROM THE LWR CO VLY REGION INTO CNTRL AZ. 
STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS AZ
TODAY...N/NNEWD INTO SRN/ERN UT...WRN CO AND NW NM AS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN HOWARD REMAIN FARTHER S AND E.

AREA VWP DATA SHOW 700 MB SWLY FLOW OVER CNTRL AZ ALREADY ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KTS.  THESE SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OR SLIGHTLY
INCREASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS NV IMPULSE CONTINUES E/SEWD.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER
THE MTNS...AND SOME DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH NV DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN AZ. 
SUFFICIENT SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
HIGH WIND/HAIL.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO
STRONG CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

FARTHER NE...A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY EXTEND NEWD INTO
SRN AND ERN UT/WRN CO AND NW NM....WHERE STRONGER BUT MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD COUPLED WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT MAY FAVOR BOWING ELEMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.

...CNTRL HI PLNS TO DAKS...
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED FROM NE CO/SE WY NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE
DAKS AND NW MN LATER TODAY...WHERE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL
PERSIST ALONG AND TO THE W OF NE/SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AB UPPER TROUGH.  COMBINATION OF MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM
WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPES TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG.

WITH DEEP WIND PROFILES STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO PASSING UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA...STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BANDS...WITH A
FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.  ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE HEATING AND SHOULD
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.

...ERN FL...
A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ALONG THE FL E CST...AS OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH HRCN FRANCES GLANCE REGION.  BUT WEAK CAPE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORM SUGGEST THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MINIMAL.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.