[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031252
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CMX 40 N BRD
BKX BBW 25 WNW MCK 50 E LIC 20 WSW LHX 40 SSE RTN 15 E ABQ 45 S GNT
65 NNW SVC 25 SW SVC 65 SSW DMN ...CONT... 20 WNW YUM 50 NE LAS 50
ENE DRA DRA 70 ESE BIH 30 NE BIH 60 NW TPH 55 SSE EKO 15 NNE MLD 35
NW JAC 25 NE WRL 25 ENE SHR SDY 50 N ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT TPL 20 WSW TXK 25
NE HOT POF SLO MMO 35 S MKE 50 SW HTL 25 NNE MBS ...CONT... 30 NW
EPM MPV UCA 40 NNE PSB 30 NNW LBE CRW TRI AHN 55 ESE MCN 25 N SAV 30
SSE FLO 35 WNW OAJ 45 NNW RWI 15 N NHK 25 NNW SBY 30 NE SBY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER
WRN NORTH AMERICA...ANALYZED AT 500 MB FROM NRN PORTION SASK/ALTA
BORDER SSWWD ACROSS SRN CA.  EMBEDDED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
EVIDENT ATTM ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN ALTA AND OVER NV. 
LATTER CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG ESEWD TOWARD WRN UT WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN SIERRAS AND LAS AREA.
 UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO INCREASE OVER NRN PLAINS AS HEIGHT
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ALTA LOW.

MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT
E OF ROCKIES.  FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ONT/MB BORDER SWWD ACROSS ERN
ND...CENTRAL SD AND SERN WY...THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN NV. FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN AZ...W-CENTRAL CO AND NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH
PERIOD...AND REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER NE.

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY RESULT FROM COMBINATION OF
NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNALLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SFC DEW POINTS 50S TO NEAR 60
F AND STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT
WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF FRONT
FROM ERN ND TO WRN NEB.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD STRENGTHEN
WITH NWD EXTENT...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR.  THIS MAY AID IN STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW CELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE
GUSTS. ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
DIABATIC HEATING AND SHOULD DIMINISH/DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.

...ERN FL...
COUNTERBALANCING FACTORS PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL RISK FOR TORNADOES
ATTM...THOUGH AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BEGIN NEAR E-CENTRAL FL COAST AND SPREAD NWWD DURING LATTER
HALF OF FCST PERIOD.  EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE FRANCES IS NOT FCST TO
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG E COAST OF FL UNTIL DAY-2...EXPANSIVE ENVELOPE
OF ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PROGRESSIVELY MORE OF
ERN/SRN FL THROUGHOUT DAY-1.  DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC FIELDS AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY WITH
APCH OF THIS HURRICANE...THOUGH MOST FAVORABLE SECTOR OF FLOW/SHEAR
NNW-ESE OF CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF
TONIGHT.  ALSO...NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL LOCALLY ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WHETHER
ORIGINATING SYNOPTICALLY OR FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/COOLING
PROCESSES.  IN A BROAD SENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE OFFSHORE AND NEAR COAST AFTER DARK WITH 100-200 J/KG 0-1
KM SRH POSSIBLE BY 04/06Z-12Z TIME FRAME...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW ROTATING STORMS IN OUTER BANDS.  CAPE...HOWEVER...WILL BE
QUITE SMALL GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING TO
ENHANCE BUOYANCY.

REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY PREDICTIONS OF
FRANCES.

...AZ...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION BEING GENERALLY SHALLOWER AND
HIGHER BASED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER.  A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL IN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH TIME...THOUGH
HORIZONTAL JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS IN DOUBT
ATTM.  MAIN PROBLEM ATTM IS HOW ROBUSTLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN
ADVECT NWD INTO AREA FROM SONORA AND CO RIVER DELTA REGION...WHERE
LATEST SFC OBS SHOW 70S F DEW POINTS FROM YUM-HERMOSILLO.  MLCAPES
UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER S-CENTRAL AZ AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR.  FARTHER N INVOF FLG...40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER
SHEARS ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS.

..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 09/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.