[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021626
SWODY1
SPC AC 021622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELO 25 WNW LBF
55 S LVS 10 W ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 60 E SOW 35 SSW MTJ 25 SSW
U28 35 ENE MLF 75 ENE TPH 45 E U31 15 SSE EKO 40 SSW PIH 30 ENE SUN
55 SSE RDM 10 NNW ONP ...CONT... 50 N FCA 50 NNE 3DU 30 SE GTF 55 NE
LWT 60 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ANJ 20 NNE TVC
25 W MBL MSN 25 SW VOK 35 SSE IWD 25 SE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 30 NW AUS
15 W FTW 25 WSW OKC 15 SW BVO 25 W FYV 15 SE HOT 50 N GLH 30 WSW DYR
15 NE CGI 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 20 NE HKY 30 ENE
CAE 15 ENE CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WESTERN STATES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS INDICATE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. 
WITH PRIMARY JET STREAK STILL DIGGING UPSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS...
POSITIVE-TILT ORIENTATION IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THERMAL GRADIENT IN
WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COOLING LOW/MID-
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL
IN MOST VIGOROUS CELLS...BUT CAPE IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF FRONT...WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.  STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF
DOWNBURSTS IN ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPS.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS STRONGLY DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW FIELD...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STRONG NOSING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN...SPREADS EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES
NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING...BUT POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OR EVEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS FRONTAL ZONE PROGRESSES INTO MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

...SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF INTO LOWER OH VLY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF AND SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S/70S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM.  GIVEN WEAK
CAPPING...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH FURTHER
SURFACE HEATING.  

IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD WEAK UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...APPEARS TO
BE ENHANCING ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE CONTRIBUTES TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE.  HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SOUTH/EAST OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS...AND AHEAD OF HURRICANE FRANCES...MAY PROVE INHIBITIVE
TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.