[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021958
SWODY1
SPC AC 021954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE ELO 20 E AXN
50 E ANW 15 WSW LAA 50 SSE LVS 10 W ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 60 E
SOW FMN 40 SW MTJ 25 SSW U28 35 ENE MLF 75 ENE TPH 45 E U31 15 SSE
EKO 40 SSW PIH 30 ENE SUN 55 SSE RDM 10 NNW ONP ...CONT... 50 N FCA
50 NNE 3DU 30 SE GTF 55 NE LWT 60 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE ANJ 30 S PLN
20 WSW MBL 30 SSW MTW 20 WSW OSH 25 SE CWA 20 ESE RHI 25 W MQT 80
NNE MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 30 NW AUS
15 W FTW 25 WSW OKC 15 SW BVO 25 W FYV 15 SE HOT 50 N GLH 30 WSW DYR
15 NE CGI 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 20 NE HKY 30 ENE
CAE 15 ENE CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WRN US. A MID-LEVEL JET AXIS IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH FROM SE ID EXTENDING NEWD INTO SW ND. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING
TO PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NRN ND EXTENDING SWWD TO CNTRL WY. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY WEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THE CAP IS
THE WEAKEST. SBCAPE VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY RANGE FROM 500
TO 1500 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
ALSO...CONSIDERING THE INVERTED V-PROFILES IN PLACE...A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH
POST-FRONTAL STORMS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...UP MI...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS PART OF THE UP OF MI. SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...REF MCD 2256. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG
ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 09/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.