[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021245
SWODY1
SPC AC 021242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 25 E ESC
20 NNE MTW 30 NW OSH 10 E AUW 15 N RHI 10 W CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 NNW MRF
20 SE FST 35 ENE P07 45 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 10 NNW AXN
35 SSW MHE 30 S MHN 20 NNE LIC 20 SSW LHX 25 SW CAO 30 W TCC 40 SW
4CR 20 E SVC 45 NW SVC 80 E SOW 10 E GNT 40 NE 4SL 40 ESE GUC 35 WNW
EGE 45 WSW CAG 35 SW VEL 25 SSW PUC 30 NW BCE 60 NNW P38 10 NNE U31
15 N BAM 15 WNW MLD 40 NW PIH 75 NNE BOI 50 S S80 45 ESE S80 15 W
BTM 10 ENE HLN 35 SSE HVR 60 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 45 ENE COT
55 SSW CLL TYR 40 E ELD 15 SE JBR 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW
CAK 45 SSE PKB 15 NNW BLF 30 E HKY 30 SW CLT 30 SSW FLO 35 NNE CRE
45 SW HSE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN THIS PERIOD...WHILE MAKING ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND AND
BOUNDARY TRAILING SWWD INTO WY ATTM WILL ALSO MAKE MINIMAL EWD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LAGS UPSTREAM. 
FURTHER WEST...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SWD.

...NRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH / FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. 
HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW /
BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED /
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND DRY / INVERTED V-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER
STRUCTURE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FURTHER WEST...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY
-- MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND MT -- AS COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SPREAD SLOWLY EWD. 
ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY / ISOLATED THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL / WIND.

..GOSS/JEWELL.. 09/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.