[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020543
SWODY1
SPC AC 020539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 45 ENE COT
55 S CLL TYR 40 E ELD 15 SE JBR 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW
CAK 45 SSE PKB 20 W BLF 30 WSW HKY 20 S SPA 25 SE CAE 45 N CRE 10 N
HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 10 NNW AXN
35 SSW MHE 30 S MHN 20 NNE LIC 20 SSW LHX 25 SW CAO 30 W TCC 40 SW
4CR 20 E SVC 45 NW SVC 80 E SOW 10 E GNT 40 NE 4SL 40 ESE GUC 35 WNW
EGE 45 WSW CAG 35 SW VEL 10 WSW PUC 20 ESE MLF 60 NNW P38 10 NNE U31
15 N BAM 15 WNW MLD 40 NW PIH 75 NNE BOI 50 S S80 45 ESE S80 15 W
BTM 10 ENE HLN 35 SSE HVR 60 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 25 E ESC
20 NNE MTW 30 NW OSH 10 E AUW 15 N RHI 10 W CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 NNW MRF
20 SE FST 35 ENE P07 45 NW DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE
THURSDAY AS STRONGER FLOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION.  THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC PRESSURES TO RISE ACROSS MT FORCING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING PEAK HEATING.  VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS WED AFTERNOON
WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100'S.  IT APPEARS STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL ND.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THROUGH 600MB WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY INITIATING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
OPTIMAL ZONE OF CONVERGENCE.  AS A RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY BE MORE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF GUSTY WINDS THAN HAIL. 
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND POST FRONTAL ZONE OF ASCENT MAY RESULT
IN A TRANSITION FROM BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ALONG WIND SHIFT TO
MORE ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...MOSTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. AT ANY RATE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 09/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.