[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011556
SWODY1
SPC AC 011552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT 15 NNE POE
20 NNE CBM 50 SE BNA 30 WSW BLF 15 ENE DAN 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 40
NNE MTC 35 WNW PIA 30 SSE OMA 30 N OFK 15 NNE FSD 15 N RST 35 E MQT
...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 40 WSW P24 20 SW MLS 15 NE COD 50 E PIH 20 NW
BAM 45 SSE 4LW 70 N LMT 20 ENE SLE 50 S AST ...CONT... 50 SW TUS 60
ENE PHX 20 S INW 60 SSW GUP 50 W ALS 35 SSW 4FC 35 WSW SNY 25 SSE
IML 40 ESE GLD 65 NW ABI 35 ESE JCT 40 SSE SAT 30 SW PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ID/MT...
RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE
UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTH. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WA WILL TRACK
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 50 TO 60 KNOT
500MB FLOW OVERSPREADING PARTS OF ID/MT.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN ID/WESTERN MT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD.

...IA...
MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS IA TODAY.  FULL SUNSHINE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS AREA IS LACK OF FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.  UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH
ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM DUE TO WEAK CAP AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.  ANY STORMS
THAT CAN FORM WOULD HAVE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.