[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010512
SWODY1
SPC AC 010509

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 45 SSW COD
40 WNW OGD 50 ENE U31 55 SE TVL 25 NNE SAC 40 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30
E PDX 10 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 10 S PHX 45 WSW PRC 30 ESE IGM
40 W GCN 35 NNW GUP 15 N FMN 15 SSE ASE 20 W FCL 40 WNW AKO 50 W GLD
45 NW EHA 30 E AMA 40 NE SJT 40 NNW HDO 30 S SAT 40 S VCT ...CONT...
30 SW BPT 30 WSW POE 40 E ELD 30 E MEM 30 NNW BNA 35 SSE JKL 10 NNE
GSO 25 SE ECG ...CONT... OSC 25 NNE GRR 35 N CGX 25 ENE MLI 10 SE
OTM 45 ESE OMA 35 SW SPW 10 NNE FRM 40 WSW EAU 25 WNW RHI 30 NNW
MQT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN ROCKIES...
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL
MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN
CA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER N-CNTRL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN ORE.

STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING /I.E. 60-90M/12HR HEIGHT FALLS/ WILL
PRECEDE TROUGH AXIS EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES LATER
TODAY. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM/
COINCIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL: 1) MAXIMIZE THIS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...AND 2) CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY IN
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL ID EWD
INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG
PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS IT PUSHES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT /I.E. 45-55KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL GIVEN
THE EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTIONS AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

...WI/IA...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG/ AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF WEAK NE-SW
ORIENTED BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF
ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...RELATIVELY WEAK CAP
OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVOF BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
DISORGANIZED OWING TO THE WEAK WIND SHEAR...HOWEVER THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 09/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.