[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011933
SWODY1
SPC AC 011929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW
GGW 40 ENE LWT 25 NNW 27U 85 SSE S80 75 N BOI 40 SW S80 25 N S80 25
SSW FCA 55 WNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 10 N BRL
25 NNE LWD 10 NNE SUX 20 NNW OTG 25 SSW MSP 35 E MQT ...CONT... 50 N
MOT 30 N GDV 50 ESE BIL 15 ESE COD 30 SSE BPI 30 ESE OGD 35 ENE ENV
30 WNW EKO 70 NW WMC 65 N LMT 20 ENE SLE 50 S AST ...CONT... 85 WSW
TUS 60 ENE PHX 20 S INW 25 WSW GNT 50 W ALS 45 WSW COS 10 NNW LIC 40
SW GLD 25 NE CDS 65 NW ABI 35 SE JCT 45 NW NIR 30 SW PSX ...CONT...
25 SW GLS 30 NNE HOU 40 NW POE 40 SW LUL 30 E LUL 30 SSW CBM 45 N
TUP 45 SSE PAH 15 NW BWG 20 WNW TRI 30 SSW BLF 40 SE LYH 25 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF MT...

...NRN ROCKIES TO NCNTRL MT...
STRONG TROUGH MAKING STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN CASCADE
MOUNTAINS OF WA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
NRN ID AND WRN MT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND AREAS AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY ARE STILL RECEIVING STRONG SURFACE HEATING. OBJECTIVE
MLCAPE GUIDANCE SUGGEST VALUES AOB 500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
TSTMS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
CELLS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING FROM ID EWD ACROSS CNTRL MT. SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2145 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...SRN MN/IA...
CAPPED BUT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WEAK AND STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN MN INTO IA. BEST
CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF
THE MS RIVER WHERE CAP IS WEAKER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. OVER IA...HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAKER FORCING SUGGEST ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING WHICH MAY LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP AND RESULT IN A FEW
STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL...OR A STRONG DOWNDRAFT OR
TWO.

..CARBIN.. 09/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.