[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311608
SWODY1
SPC AC 311606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPS 30
SSE OKC MKO 30 SSE FYV HOT 30 WNW TXK 45 NNE ACT BWD 35 E ABI SPS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 20 ENE GDP
35 SW CDS 40 NNW BVO 35 NE COU 40 SSW DEC 40 SW HUF 40 ENE OWB 55
NNW CSV 40 NW HSS 30 ENE AVL 35 S SPA 15 N MCN 55 SE MEI 20 SE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE RWL 25 NNW FCL
40 W TAD 15 ESE 4SL 50 NW GUP 20 ENE U17 40 NNW PUC 50 S BPI 50 SSE
LND 45 ENE RWL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH
TX...SOUTHEAST OK...AND WESTERN AR...

...OK/TX/AR...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY
AS UPSTREAM JET MAX DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CA INTO AZ.  MEANWHILE...
BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK/SOUTHERN AR...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.  MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THIS AREA WILL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS TODAY ALLOWING SOME DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM
500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL
TX AT THIS TIME.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUTLOOK
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  COMBINATION OF INCREASING UVVS AND MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. 
ETA/RUC MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW STRUCTURES. 
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

..HART/BANACOS.. 10/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.