[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311932
SWODY1
SPC AC 311930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPS 30
SSE OKC MKO 30 SSE FYV 10 W HOT 45 SW TYR 55 E JCT 10 NNE JCT 20 NNE
SJT SPS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 20 ENE GDP
35 SW CDS 40 NNW BVO 35 NE COU 40 SSW DEC 40 SW HUF 40 ENE OWB 55
NNW CSV 40 NW HSS 30 ENE AVL 35 S SPA 15 N MCN 55 SE MEI 20 SE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE RWL 25 NNW FCL
40 W TAD 15 ESE 4SL 50 NW GUP 20 ENE U17 40 NNW PUC 50 S BPI 50 SSE
LND 45 ENE RWL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF TX...OK AND AR...

...TX/OK/AR...
18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS WITH A
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD INTO CNTRL OK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOWS
MORE WARM FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT STRETCHES ESEWD INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AR AND NRN MS. FARTHER S...DIFFERENTIAL
DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
E OF DRT NWD TO W OF BWD TO INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONT NE OF MLC.
CLUSTER OF TSTMS ONGOING OVER ERN OK APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK. AN
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
INVOF A MESOLOW ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE E OF SJT...AND POSSIBLY
DOWNSTREAM FROM ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NRN MEXICO.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION NWD INTO NERN
TX/SERN OK HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S INTO
LOWER 80S. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 60S...AIR MASS
HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN SOME AREAS WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG AND A DECREASING CAP. ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING
ACTIVITY NEAR SJT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO
N-CNTRL/NERN TX AND SERN OK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES...HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 


FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2383.

..MEAD.. 10/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.