[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311254
SWODY1
SPC AC 311252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP ROW 10 WNW
AMA 20 NNE P28 35 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 25 SE OTM 20 NNW DEC 35 SSE BMG
35 SSE SDF 20 NW TYS 20 NNE ATL 30 NNE LGC 20 SSE BHM 15 SW MEI 30 E
MCB 35 SSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW U28 30 ENE SLC
MLD 20 SE IDA 25 NE JAC 25 S WRL 40 E DGW BFF 25 NNW LIC 25 ESE PUB
25 W TAD 45 SE DRO 40 WSW CEZ 10 SSW U28.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX THROUGH SRN OK AND AR...

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF SW TX NEWD
THROUGH N CNTRL TX AND INTO CNTRL AR. AN AREA OF ELEVATED STORMS
PERSISTS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM CNTRL OK EWD THROUGH NRN
AR. FARTHER WEST...MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO IS SPREADING THROUGH ERN NM INTO FAR W TX
AND WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
SEPARATE ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE
EXISTS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA AND WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH TX AND
INTO OK TODAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH WRN/CNTRL TX NWD
THROUGH OK.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND PRE-EXISTING MODEST LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING
WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SE
TX INTO LA...AND SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE ERN/SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RAIN AREA MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE INFLOW AIR
DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM
35-45 KT THROUGH MUCH OF TX...SRN OK AND AR TODAY. ISOLATED EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 10/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.