[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310519
SWODY1
SPC AC 310517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP ROW 10 WNW
AMA 20 NNE P28 35 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 25 SE OTM 20 NW SPI 35 SSW HUF
45 S SDF 10 NNE CSV 20 NNE ATL 30 NNE LGC 20 SSE BHM 15 SW MEI 30 E
MCB 35 SSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW U28 30 ENE SLC
MLD 20 SE IDA 25 NE JAC 25 S WRL 40 E DGW BFF 25 NNW LIC 25 ESE PUB
25 W TAD 40 SE DRO 40 WSW CEZ 10 SSW U28.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SRN STREAM FEATURE CROSSING BAJA CA WILL
PHASE WITH TIME...EVOLVING INTO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES /
HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS TROUGH -- PARTICULARLY
THE SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / SPEED MAX -- WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE AFFECTING THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AS WARM ADVECTION REGIME PREVAILS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SRN STREAM TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN
STREAM FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL MAKE RELATIVELY SLOW EWD PROGRESS...A STRONG SWD
SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...REACHING WRN OK / THE TX PANHANDLE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD PER LATEST ETA FORECAST.

...HILL COUNTRY OF TX NEWD INTO SERN OK / AR...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN BROAD REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SWRN U.S. UPPER FEATURE.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
DAYTIME HEATING.  RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM SUGGESTS THAT STORM
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED.

DESPITE THIS...FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL
EXIST OVER THIS REGION.  THEREFORE...LARGE REGION OF LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE INCLUDED FROM PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARD
THE MID MS VALLEY.  SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS
THAT AREAS OF GREATER HEATING / INSTABILITY MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED.  

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAIN
AXIS OF CONVECTION FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS TX / NEWD ACROSS THE
OZARKS / MID MS / LOWER OH / TN VALLEYS WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 10/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.