[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310056
SWODY1
SPC AC 310055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE FCA 65 NE MSO
55 E S80 30 E ALW 55 NE EPH 15 W EAT 50 E SLE 25 NNW AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 25 N HOB 25
WSW CSM 10 ESE END 25 SSW JLN 20 NNW ARG 20 S MKL 25 NE MSL 30 NNE
CHA 40 SSE TYS 40 WNW AND ATL 40 E MEI 40 SE ESF 35 NW HOU 35 NNW
NIR 40 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW JFK 20 WNW ILG
30 WSW AOO 20 SE FKL 15 WNW JHW 25 NNW BUF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PARTS OF WRN AND NRN NY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ERIE / ONTARIO...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / SRN ONTARIO TOWARD WRN QUEBEC.

DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...MINIMAL INSTABILITY HAS
HINDERED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST.  WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO ENEWD ACROSS NRN NY...BUT EXPECT REMAINING SEVERE THREAT TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS FURTHER STABILIZES.

...TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX ENEWD TO THE RED RIVER / ARKLATEX...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT NOW
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX.  AS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
THIS EVENING...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE / INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. 

SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  AXIS OF
GREATEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000 T0 2OOO J/KG/ EXISTS ACROSS N TX
ATTM...WHERE EVENING FWD /FORT WORTH TX/ RAOB INDICATES 850 TO 500
MB LAPSE RATE NEAR 7 C/KM.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY
FORECAST FOR HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS
ACROSS MOST OF N TX AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK / THE
ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.