[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301944
SWODY1
SPC AC 301943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 45 NW LRD
...CONT... 25 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR
55 ENE MKL 15 NNW LEX 10 ENE CMH 45 NNW YNG ...CONT... 15 NNE APN 45
NNW TVC 10 N IMT 20 W CMX ...CONT... 35 ESE DOV 20 NNE LYH ATL 45
ESE MEI 40 ESE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 55 SE FCA
45 SSW MSO 20 SSE ALW 20 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 25 E PDX 50 S AST.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER
L.S. WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS L.H. INTO WRN OH
AND INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. THOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS TO WARM AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED....VEERING
WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE RESULTED IN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. MOREOVER...DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING HAS
DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OH...WHICH IS SLOWING
THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. DESPITE STRONG...ZONAL TROPOSPHERIC
WIND FIELDS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWPS...IT APPEARS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS HAVING TROUBLE ORGANIZING...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF
THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...TX...
COLD FRONT HAS EFFECTIVELY STALLED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ARKLATEX
SWWD INTO SWRN TX /E OF P07/. DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F AND DIABATIC
HEATING HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS S OF THE FRONT TO BECOME SLIGHTLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. PERSISTENT WAA
COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS WRN TX/PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/ ARE LIKELY AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY
FROM N-CNTRL TX SWD INTO NRN COAHUILA MEXICO.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM VICINITY OF BOUNDARY NWD TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50
KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT FORM NEAR SURFACE FRONT. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. MODEST LAPSE
RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2382.

..MEAD.. 10/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.