[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301541
SWODY1
SPC AC 301539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
SYR LBE PKB UNI 45 ENE LUK 35 NNE DAY 35 E TOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DOV 20 NNE LYH
ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60 WSW COT ...CONT...
25 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR 45 NNW HOP
30 WSW LUK 20 SW TOL 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 N OSC 35 S TVC 20 ENE
AUW 25 W IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 55 SE FCA
45 SSW MSO 20 SSE ALW 20 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 25 E PDX 50 S AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
OH...NORTHERN WV...WESTERN PA...AND WESTERN NY...

...EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...
POTENT UPPER LOW OVER MN/WI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO QUEBEC THIS PERIOD...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY.  MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DESTABILIZE...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM THE
WEST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A CORRIDOR OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA.  THIS AREA APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE CAPE VALUES BELOW
1000 J/KG...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT
CAN DEVELOP/SUSTAIN IN THIS REGION.  ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY AND CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...WHERE MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND
SUNSET WILL DIMINISH THREAT.

...TX...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TX /DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S/.  THIS AIR MASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK.  SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A LOW THREAT OF HAIL IN
STRONGER CELLS TONIGHT OVER WEST TX.

..HART/BANACOS.. 10/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.