[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301257
SWODY1
SPC AC 301255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
SYR ITH 15 SSE IPT 20 WNW CXY 15 W EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 NW JKL LUK 35
NNE DAY 25 NE TOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SBY 40 W RIC
ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60 NW LRD ...CONT...
30 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR 45 NNW HOP
15 NNE BMG 20 ENE AZO 50 N GRR 15 SSW TVC 25 WSW ESC 20 ESE IWD 60
WNW CMX 65 NNW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CTB 70 NE MSO
45 SSW MSO ALW 55 W YKM 30 NW AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...OH VALLEY AREA...

WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TODAY AS
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. STRONG SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL JETS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S...AND PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY
MARGINAL. THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION FROM WRN OH SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL KY MAY SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND/SHEAR PROFILES...
THE STRONGER CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND EVENT.


...W TX...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY
OF STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SW TX. THE CAP WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION MUCH OF TODAY...BUT MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 

A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT
WHEN DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE
AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER
PARTS OF W AND N TX. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE IN
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER
N TX...GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO SRN OK OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 10/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.