[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300556
SWODY1
SPC AC 300555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
ART ITH IPT 35 ESE MGW UNI DAY JXN ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ELP ROW AMA
GAG PNC FYV 60 NNW LIT 25 SSE JBR 40 NW HOP SBN MBL 75 ENE MQT
...CONT... ACY DAN ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60
NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CTB 70 NE MSO
45 SSW MSO ALW 55 W YKM 30 NW AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MI TO OH...WRN PORTIONS
NY/PA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER
WRN CONUS.  DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN SD IS FCST TO
CONTINUE OCCLUDING AND TO FILL THROUGH END OF PERIOD...AS IT MOVES
ENEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES TO SWRN QUE.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT OVER WRN UPPER MI...SWWD ACROSS
 WRN WI...MO AND NW TX.  FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY...LOSING BAROCLINICITY AS
 PARENT UPPER PERTURBATION FILLS/EJECTS.  STILL...ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAINLY FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD.

FARTHER SW...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT FROM ARKLATEX TO W TX WILL
STALL...THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONT LATE IN PERIOD. 
ELEVATED WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP N OF FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING
SRN CA AND NRN BAJA.  LATTER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE OVER NWRN MEX --
APCHG FAR W TX -- BY 31/12Z.

...CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES STATES AND OH VALLEY...
AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING INVOF
FRONT OVER PORTIONS WRN OR CENTRAL LOWER MI NWD INTO ERN UPPER
MI...WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.  STRONG
KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT SE OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLONE...OVER MUCH OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA.  EXPECT 50-60 KT
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. 
SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F WILL HELP TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY...AND FORCED ASCENT IN
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN TSTM LINE.  THROUGH
MID-LATE MORNING...AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DIABATICALLY
HEATS/DESTABILIZES...SBCAPE WILL STRENGTHEN TO ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE AND SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.  THREAT
WILL DECREASE AGAIN OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA AND WRN/CENTRAL NY AFTER
ABOUT 31/00Z...AS BAND OF STRONGEST ASCENT MOVES INTO DECREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE.

...W TX...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OVER
TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD
EXPAND/SPREAD NEWD AND BECOME GREATER IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK ---
ESPECIALLY N OF SFC FRONT -- WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. 
LATE AFTERNOON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 6.5-7/5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F SE
OF FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.  CAPPING
SHOULD RESTRICT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DARK...WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED.  FLOW ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE WEAK BUT WITH MAJOR
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM E... COMBINING WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL
WINDS TO YIELD 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION
WITH ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.

30-40 KT LLJ SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS W-CENTRAL AND NW TX AFTER
DARK...SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL WAA/ASCENT AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ELEVATED MUCAPE
SHOULD BE UNDER 1000 J/KG MOST AREAS.  LITTLE OR NO MID/UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT IS INDICATED THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH MEX TROUGH STILL WELL
W...AND CAPPING IS A CONCERN DURING AFTERNOON. THEREFORE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE BELOW CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK THRESHOLDS ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.