[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 292007
SWODY1
SPC AC 292005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW
OTM 30 NNE DSM 35 W MCW 30 NW MKT 30 E STC 60 SSE DLH 35 W RHI OSH
RFD BRL 45 SW OTM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC
AZO LAF MVN POF 25 N HOT 25 NE PRX DUA 30 N ADM 40 W TUL 20 WSW FNB
40 NE OMA 20 WSW SPW 25 ENE BKX 50 SE MBG 50 NE MBG FAR 10 SE BJI
ELO 95 ENE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PSX 40 S AUS 30
WNW HDO 35 NNE DRT 25 SW SJT 60 WNW MWL 20 NNW OKC 30 W EMP 30 ENE
BIE 30 SSE SUX 20 N OFK 30 WNW BUB 15 WSW MHN 35 E CDR 55 S Y22 35
NE BIS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 30 ENE UCA 15 WSW MSV 30 NW
ILG 15 SW MRB 35 SSW EKN 15 SSE BLF 20 NNW HKY 30 ESE SPA CAE 30 SSW
CHS ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SW AQQ 20 E TOI
15 WNW ANB 45 SW BNA 20 WNW MKL 25 SE ELD 40 NNE POE 20 SE BPT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...MN...WI AND IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS...

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO WRN SD/NEB WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING ACCOMPANYING
90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NEB. AT THE
SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW WAS SITUATED OVER NERN SD AS OF 19Z WITH
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO NRN WI.
PRIMARY COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN NEB
INTO CNTRL KS...WHILE A SECONDARY...WEAKER COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT
WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM NERN KS SWWD INTO CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL TX.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS FIELD/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT OVER WRN IA/SERN NEB...LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEEP-LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL SYSTEM. DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/SRN MN
INTO IA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES NOW
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ALONG FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. EVOLUTION INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD
#2366.

OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG/N
OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/NRN MN EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN
GREAT LAKES AS 50-60 KT SLY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WI. WHILE LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP NEARER TO SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ACROSS WARM
FRONT. 

FINALLY...TCU HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS AHEAD OF SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NRN MO
SWWD INTO CNTRL OK. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TENDS TO
DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND A PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKENING CAP SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH AN EVOLUTION
INTO MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH TIME.

..MEAD.. 10/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.