[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300105
SWODY1
SPC AC 300103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRL OTM
ALO 20 E RST 60 NE MSP 40 SSW DLH 25 SW IWD RHI OSH RFD BRL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC
JXN LAF MDH POF LIT 25 NNW TXK 15 SW DUA 35 NW MLC 50 ENE CNU LWD 40
N RST 30 E BRD 50 ESE BJI ELO 45 NE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS SLK MSV ABE BWI
30 ESE CHO LYH 45 ESE PKB ZZV DAY OWB ELD TYR MWL ADM TUL 25 WNW RST
MSP STC AXN 50 NNE ATY 30 NE PIR 45 SE Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT
...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF WI...PORTIONS ERN
IA...NWRN IL...EXTREME SERN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MI TO ERN OK/WRN AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT OVER CONUS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SD.  THIS
LOW WILL CATCH UP WITH OCCLUDING SFC LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER NERN
SD/SERN ND THIS EVENING.  RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE
ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN REMAINDER TONIGHT....WHILE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES LIFTING NWD ACROSS LS REGION.  COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP EWD ACROSS IA...MO...OK AND W TX...CATCHING UP TO DRYLINE THAT
IS NOW LARGELY STALLED ACROSS TX/OK.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN MO...
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THAT WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO IS BEING ENHANCED
FOR TSTMS CROSSING WARM FRONT OVER NERN MN/NRN WI.  REF WWS
869-871...873..AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM
DETAILS.  AS EVENING PROGRESSES...LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
BECOME DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELDS AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT OVER WARM SECTOR --
WITH 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER
BASED ON RAOBS AND VWP/PROFILER DATA.  THEREFORE...MUST CONTINUE TO
CARRY TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM PRIMARILY FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE AND ROTATING BOW ECHO HEADS. 
AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN IA AND WI WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. 
THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AS FAR E AS WRN UPPER MI
AND LM FROM ACTIVITY NOW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

...SRN MO TO SERN OK/WRN AR...
REF SPC WW 872 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
SITUATION.  LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERCOME
EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER/DIURNAL STRATUS DECK ACROSS
ERN OK AND WRN AR...MAINTAINING CORRIDOR OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CAPE THAT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN AR AND MORE OF SWRN MO THROUGH
EVENING.  MEANWHILE RELATIVE COOL POCKET LEFT OVER FROM THAT STRATUS
COVER WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN OZARKS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MO AND
WEAKEN.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 06Z...WITH MLCAPES IN 700-1100 J/KG RANGE
BASED ON MODIFIED SGF/RUC SOUNDINGS.

...IL/LM/LOWER MI AND SERN WI...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT CENTRAL/WRN IL...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN WAA ZONE FARTHER N NEAR LM...SHOULD SPREAD
TOWARD LOWER MI.  EXPECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WAA ASCENT PROVIDED
BY STRENGTHENING LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL AHEAD OF
PRIMARY NEAR-FRONTAL BAND MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEADY TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS
POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 10/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.