[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291600
SWODY1
SPC AC 291558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE
P35 10 N DSM 20 WNW MCW 30 WNW MKT 30 SW BRD 35 SSW DLH AUW OSH RFD
BRL 45 NE P35.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC
AZO LAF MVN POF 25 N HOT 25 NE PRX DUA 35 WNW ADM OKC STJ 55 WSW DSM
SPW BKX 9V9 PIR 40 E MBG FAR ELO 85 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MSS 30 ENE UCA
15 WSW MSV 30 NW ILG 15 SW MRB 35 SSW EKN 15 SSE BLF 20 NNW HKY 30
ESE SPA CAE 30 SSW CHS ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY ...CONT...
10 SW AQQ 20 E TOI 15 WNW ANB 45 SW BNA 20 WNW MKL 25 SE ELD 25 NNE
CLL 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 25 SW SJT 60 WNW MWL 20 NNW OKC
20 NNE EMP 40 NNW FNB 30 SSE SUX 20 N OFK 30 WNW BUB 15 WSW MHN 35 E
CDR 55 S Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...WESTERN WI...EASTERN IA...AND NORTHWEST
IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN OK INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER WY/CO. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM SD INTO MN...WITH BROAD WARM SECTOR
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LOW. COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND WIDESPREAD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

...SOUTHERN MN/WI/IA/NORTHWEST IL...
ETA/RUC/GFS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW INTO WESTERN IA/WESTERN MO BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE
WARM/MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND
LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM WOULD SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREAT.  HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO BOUNDARY
ALSO INDICATE A RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.  EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING
AS STORMS MOVE INTO WI/IL.

...CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI...
DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE DLH AREA. 
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BURN AWAY FROM THESE AREAS.  HOWEVER...BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS IN THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES IF POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR.  

...CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN MN...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL SD. MORE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SD INTO
WESTERN MN AS STRONG UVVS OVERSPREAD ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  REFER TO MCD NUMBER 2364 FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

...IL/MO/AR/OK...
SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD FROM MN/SD LOW INTO
WESTERN MO AND CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER
FORCING AND MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT...LIKELY
LEADING TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT VERY STEEP...AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.  HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED OR POSSIBLY
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..HART/BANACOS.. 10/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.