[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291251
SWODY1
SPC AC 291249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 30
ENE AZO 35 SE CGX 20 S DEC 25 S BLV 25 W POF 55 WSW ARG 25 N HOT 40
S PGO 10 SSE ADM 20 NNE FSI 30 SE END 15 WNW FLV 40 NNW LWD 15 SW
FOD SPW 10 SE FSD 35 SW MHE 25 E PIR 40 E MBG 20 NE FAR 40 NNW HIB
35 NNE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N AQQ 45 WNW AUO
50 N MSL MKL 35 SSE SHV 25 NNE SAT 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW P07
10 NNW FST 65 WSW SPS 15 WSW ICT 40 SE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 ESE YKN 30
NNW BUB 10 SW MHN 25 SSE DGW 30 SE SHR 40 NNE 4BQ 60 WSW DVL 45 E
RRT ...CONT... 25 N ART 25 ESE AVP 45 N RIC 15 NNE CLT 30 WSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 15 W CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT
ENEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
EVENING. SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE NOW OVER SRN
SD WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SRN MN BY EARLY EVENING WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WRN IA AND ERN KS. THE WARM FRONT NOW
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EWD
THROUGH OK AND TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING AND VEERING
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
WILL EXTEND FROM SERN KS THROUGH ERN OK AND INTO NW TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  


...UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH SRN PLAINS... 

RICH MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ HAS
ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AS FAR N AS SRN MN. SURFACE
HEATING...AS WELL AS MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD OVER THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET NOW SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT. THIS AND
DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND N OF
THE WARM FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL SINCE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT STORMS WILL CROSS INTO
THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG OR JUST S OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR
TRIPLE POINT AND MID LEVEL DRY SURGE FROM EXTREME ERN SD INTO SRN MN
MAY STAY SURFACE BASED LONGER WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

FARTHER S...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE
FROM PARTS OF IA SWD THROUGH MO...ERN KS...OK AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S
AS TX. STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH WILL OVERLAP THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. BY MID AFTERNOON...0-6 KM SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AND 0-2 KM SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT WILL BE LIKELY. THE
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS LINE SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A
MORE LINEAR MODE. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL/CROSBIE.. 10/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.