[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281958
SWODY1
SPC AC 281956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK
40 E TCC 20 SSW GCK 35 NNW CNK 40 N GRI 40 ESE ANW 25 NE MHN 25 SSE
AIA 50 NW AKO 55 NNE 4SL 55 NE INW 30 WNW EED 45 W DRA 10 W ELY 30
WNW IDA 65 WSW MLS 65 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PNS 45 NW MEI
25 ESE PBF 45 WSW HOT 40 ENE DAL 20 WNW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MTC 30 W TOL
15 S DAY 15 NNE JKL 10 NE SPA 35 SSW CHS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY...
AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SERN
MT/NERN WY WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD
AND INTO CNTRL MO. PERSISTENT 25-35 KT SWLY LLJ FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS MAINTAINED ELEVATED TSTM
CLUSTERS TODAY N OF WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NERN SD/SERN ND EWD
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN AND WI. EXPECT LLJ TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SAME
GENERAL AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF
VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE
RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS...
NWD TRANSPORT OF INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF
WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
THUS...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITHIN REGION OF BROADER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...SRN PLAINS...
DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
AND MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
TX INTO WRN OK WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /PER
RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS/. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CORROBORATE THESE DATA AND ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE
CAP IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. PRIMARY CONCERN...HOWEVER...
IS THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH WOULD
FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE A WEAK
CONFLUENCE LINE FROM SWRN KS /W OF DDC/ SWWD INTO THE SWRN TX PNHDL
/E OF CVS/. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OR
OTHER SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY BREAK THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. CURRENT PROFILERS INDICATE MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST.

..MEAD.. 10/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.