[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290111
SWODY1
SPC AC 290109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC MIE LAF MMO MLI
SZL CNU PNC END CSM 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK 40 E
TCC 20 SSW GCK OLU OFK 65 W YKN VTN AIA COS GUP 25 NNW TUS 60 SE BIH
ELY MLD BIL 65 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 45 ESE TLH
10 E CEW MEI UOX MKL HOP JKL 30 SE 5I3 60 WNW AND 35 SSE AHN 25 S
CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS
IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE IS ANALYZED ATTM
WITH SEVERAL DIFFUSE CENTERS SCATTERED FROM NRN CO TO ERN SD AND
SERN MT.  HOWEVER...EXPECT DISCRETE LOW TO CONSOLIDATE TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MIGRATE ENEWD ACROSS NEB/SD BORDER
REGION.  SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM E-CENTRAL SD SEWD ACROSS
WRN IA AND NERN MO -- WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN.  DRYLINE
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR PRESENT POSITION FROM CENTRAL NEB SSWWD ACROSS
WRN KS AND WRN TX PANHANDLE...TO SERN CORNER NM.

...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY ...
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION THROUGH
REMAINDER TONIGHT...COMBINING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TO
YIELD 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ.  PARCELS WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO
LFC IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING ELEVATED
BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF
TSTMS. STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL..HOWEVER
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOF DRYLINE
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.  VERY WEAK CAPPING EVIDENT IN MAF RAOB
WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG...AND SFC-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 50 KT
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION FOR ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS.
 ISOLATED CONVECTION ATTM NW OF MAF MAY INTENSIFY...HOWEVER TEMPORAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC-BASED STORMS IS SHORT-LIVED BECAUSE OF
ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN CINH.

..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.