[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281559
SWODY1
SPC AC 281558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK
30 SSE DHT 20 WSW DDC 15 SW BIE OFK 50 E ANW 30 SW VTN 20 SSE AIA 50
NW AKO 55 NNE 4SL 55 NE INW 30 WNW EED 45 W DRA 10 W ELY 30 WNW IDA
65 WSW MLS 65 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PNS 45 NW MEI
25 ESE PBF 45 WSW HOT 40 ENE DAL 20 WNW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MTC 30 W TOL
15 S DAY 15 NNE JKL 10 NE SPA 35 SSW CHS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE
OVERSPREADING ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS.  OBSERVED ANALYSES
FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS
ELEVATED ALONG COOL SIDE OF NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WRN SD INTO SRN IA.  EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MN WILL INHIBIT NWD MOVEMENT TO
THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED STORMS WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES.  IN ITS WAKE... LIMITED
CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT AS CAPPING REMAINS STRONG AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  IN FACT...NONE OF THE MORNING
SHORT-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP MOIST CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY OVER THIS REGION.  THUS...THOUGH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ELEVATED STORMS TODAY...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
ADJUSTED CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OVER THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
OF ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED TODAY OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  BOUNDARY LAYER INTO
NWRN TX/WRN OK/OK AND TX PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY. IN ADDITION...LOW
CLOUDS MAY MIX/DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AMPLE HEATING FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE LIMITED LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED THIS MORNING. THOUGH LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
REGION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARAMETERS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES RELATIVELY
LOW ATTM.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 10/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.