[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280102
SWODY1
SPC AC 280101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD
60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MRY 65 SE RBL BOI 35
S 27U WEY 20 SW COD RIW CAG ASE 60 W PUB PUB LIC 55 WSW RAP REJ 55 N
MOT ...CONT... 45 ESE RRT BRD MCW OTM ALN 35 NNW EVV SDF CRW PSK 40
ENE HKY AND LGC 0A8 25 NE GLH ELD GGG 50 NE CLL 25 ESE CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER
CA...WITH SEVERAL APPARENT VORTICITY MAXIMA ORBITING COMMON CENTER
NEAR SFO BAY.  EXPECT THIS VORTEX TO DRIFT EWD TO SIERRAS DURING
REMAINDER PERIOD.  LOW IS PRECEDED BY EXTENSIVE BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS REGION AND
W-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AS WELL AS E OF ROCKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS
AND BANDS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. 
AT SFC...WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM BETWEEN PUB-COS ESEWD ACROSS
SWRN AND S-CENTRAL KS TO BETWEEN CNU-EMP...AND SHOULD LIFT NWD 10-15
KT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS REGION TO SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION...WITH AROUND 1800 J/KG MLCAPE IN 00Z AMA RAOB AND SOMEWHAT
LESS FARTHER N AND S.  AMA RAOB AND CVS VWP INDICATE AROUND 150-200
J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER AND AROUND 45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS NEAR PEAK ATTM AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING.  PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...LLJ INCREASES
AND BUOYANCY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.  FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
SUPERCELL/SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS ERN NM...WRN TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND SERN CO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING INVOF SFC WARM
FRONT...WHERE ELY SFC FLOW ENLARGES 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS IN REGION OF
WEAK BUT NEARLY UNCAPPED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  S-CENTRAL/SERN KS
PROFILER WINDS AND VWP DATA...ALONG WITH TOP RAOB ...INDICATE
ROUGHLY 150 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AVAILABLE FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN TURN
RIGHTWARD -- MOVING ENE INSTEAD OF NNE ACROSS WARM FRONT AND INTO
MORE ELEVATED BUOYANCY.  THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WELL ENOUGH
ORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 10/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.