[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280607
SWODY1
SPC AC 280605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AXN 40
W MSP MCW 25 ESE DSM LWD 35 S OMA YKN 40 WNW HON ABR AXN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 10 S CMH 10
SSE CRW 15 S SAV ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 60 N PIE ...CONT... 35 SSE MOB
20 WSW GWO 15 SW LIT PGO ADM 40 WNW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GDP 50 ENE DHT
RSL EAR 35 E MHN SNY 40 SE ALS GUP EED 60 NE DAG EKO 55 SSW BOI 80
SSE S80 BZN 50 NW MLS 70 NW MOT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SD...EXTREME ERN
NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE MEAN PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CONUS THROUGH
PERIOD...BUT WITH IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE ADJUSTMENTS.  LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CA/NV
-- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL ASSUME POSITIVE TILT ACROSS
WRN CONUS...AS UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES.  AT
SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ACROSS
NRN PLAINS...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS INVOF NERN WY AND MOVES GENERALLY
EWD TOWARD SERN SD/NWRN IA.  SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN
CO AND N-CENTRAL TO SERN KS...WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY EARLY
IN PERIOD AND ACROSS PORTIONS UPPER AND LOWER MI BY 29/12Z.  DRYLINE
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED EARLY IN PERIOD FROM SERN NM TO ERN
CO...THEN MOVE EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF VERTICAL MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO ITS
W.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CORRIDOR FROM
E-CENTRAL SD SEWD ACROSS WRN IA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WHILE AVAILABLE BUOYANCY INVOF WARM FRONT STILL WILL BE
SFC-BASED.  ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z WILL BE IN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LCL
 AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER
60S TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH MOIST SECTOR BEHIND SFC WARM
FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG.  FCST HODOGRAPHS
NEAR WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY BACKED SFC FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED 0-1 KM SRH ON 150-250 J/KG RANGE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS
40-50 KT.  SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGIME MAY PRODUCE ANY FORM OF SEVERE
INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHARPLY DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NEWD
OVER DAKOTAS/MN/IA...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG IT IS
UNLIKELY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  FCST THETA CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SLOPE...AND AREA WILL BE UNDER
OR JUST W OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AROUND 21Z.  THEREAFTER CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAY ALLOW SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT INVOF WARM FRONT
AND AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION.  45-55 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT
CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER DARK WITH OCCASIONAL
HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE FARTHER S NEAR DRYLINE AS WELL WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING...COVERAGE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE. 
HOWEVER ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN ABOUT27/21Z AND 28/03Z.

..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.