[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271953
SWODY1
SPC AC 271951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD
60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL
75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW
ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT
...CONT... 45 ESE RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 WNW MCW 25 SSE OTM 15 NNW ALN 40
NW EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 45
WSW CBM 25 NE GLH 30 NNE ELD 35 NNE GGG 45 WSW LFK 40 ENE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...HIGH PLAINS...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...NWD INTO WRN KS...AS EVIDENCE BY NWD CU FIELD EXPANSION.
 THIS MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WRN-NWRN PERIPHERY OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO OK.  THIS REGION OF THE HIGH PLAINS POSES
SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED...SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KT. 
SHOWERS...AND MOST RECENTLY ISOLATED TSTMS...ARE SLOWLY DEEPENING
OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE NM BORDER WEST OF LBB.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
SUNSHINE WILL AID FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.  THERE APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR PERHAPS A
TORNADO IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THIS REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE/LONGEVITY OF THIS
CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.


....SRN CA...

SECONDARY POST FRONTAL BAND OF CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ROTATING
INLAND ALONG THE SRN CA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY FROM VENTURA COUNTY...SWD TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  AIRMASS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SBCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500J/KG. RESULTANT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WITH ONGOING/FUTURE CONVECTION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THIS EVEN SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS.

..DARROW.. 10/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.