[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271659
SWODY1
SPC AC 271657

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD
60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL
75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW
ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT
...CONT... 45 ESE RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 WNW MCW 25 SSE OTM 15 NNW ALN 40
NW EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 35
WSW CBM 20 W GWO 10 NNE MLU 50 NE LFK 50 WSW LFK 40 ENE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY. COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NRN PACIFIC APPROACH WRN CANADA.  WRN PORTION OF WARM FRONT...WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SRN KS TO THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.  SURFACE COLD
FRONT IN THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CA TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...CENTRAL/SRN CA...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST...WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN CA
TODAY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND MOVING ACROSS SRN CA.  RESULTANT
SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S/ OVER THE LA BASIN AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /LESS
THAN -20C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...BUT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM
COVERAGE.  LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY DESPITE
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING PER EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL AID IN
GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  STRONGER AXIS OF INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN TX TO WRN KS WHERE
GREATER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. 
MID-LEVEL SSWLY WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS A 40-45 KT SSWLY
MID-LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY OVER ERN NM...SPREADS NNEWD. THE LACK OF
WELL DEFINED UPPER FORCING EXPECTED ACROSS WRN TX TO WRN KS SUGGESTS
SURFACE HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR STORM INITIATION. DESPITE THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING
STORMS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.  HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 10/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.