[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271303
SWODY1
SPC AC 271301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD
60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL
75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW
ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL 20 ENE AXN
25 WNW FRM 25 SSE OTM 15 ESE STL 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW
GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 20 SE UOX 50 E PBF 45 NNW ELD 35 E
DAL 35 E TPL 25 SSW PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A LARGE SE US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT SFC HEATING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS KANSAS AND
WEST TX WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE ANTICIPATED.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. 

THE 12Z SOUNDING AT DDC SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 40 KT
MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN KS. THE INCREASE IN
SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE A HAIL
AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH CELLS THAT FORM IN THE GREATER
INSTABILITY FROM WEST TX ARCHING NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS.
DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT TO
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

...CA...
A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD TODAY ALONG THE
COAST OF CA. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS ONGOING IN
THE LA BASIN ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A BAND OF STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET OF 90
KT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING INLAND...PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE BAND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS THE BAND DRIFTS SWD ALONG THE COAST
TOWARD THE SAN DIEGO AREA THIS MORNING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LOW WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
IN ADDITION...A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
MOVE SSEWD INTO THE LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION
WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. IF ENHANCED SFC HEATING OCCURS AND
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL MAINLY ALONG
THE SRN CA COAST AND ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A MINIMAL
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LA BASIN CREATING A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 10/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.