[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270428
SWODY1
SPC AC 270426

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD
60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL AXN 25 ENE
OTG 20 ESE IRK 25 NW MDH 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 30 WNW GSO 40 NW
AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM UOX 60 E LIT 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE
JCT DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL
75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW
ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE STATES...WITH A DEEP COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER
LOW VCNTY SFO BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND AS LAST STRONG VORT MAX
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO CNTRL/SRN CA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 MEANWHILE...WAVE TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING NWD FROM DEEP IN
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.  

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SITUATED FROM THE OH VLY TO OK/KS BORDER WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD BE SLOWED AT
TIMES BY PERIODIC TSTM CLUSTERS.  TO THE WEST...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN CA.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IF/WHERE SUSTAINED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MIGHT
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.  ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS WOULD BE FAVORED
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NRN KS INTO MO AND THE OH VLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.  ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY HEATING ALONE.  GIVEN
INSOLATION...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG/ WILL EXIST
FROM PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH KS/NRN OK INTO THE OZARKS.
 GIVEN 30-35 KT 0-6KM SHEAR...ISOLD STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO GIVE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.  BUT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN BOTH
AREAL COVERAGE/SEVERITY IS LOW.

...CNTRL/SRN CA...
H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20C WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ALL OF
CNTRL/SRN CA WEDNESDAY.  POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
NUMEROUS CBS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR.  LOW FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  ONE OR TWO TSTMS COULD EVOLVE INTO
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE LA BASIN WHERE THE MORE UNSTABLE
MARINE LAYER /SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 55F/ BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH
35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM.

..RACY.. 10/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.