[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270056
SWODY1
SPC AC 270055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 25 SW MHS 55 SSE
4LW 45 NW WMC 35 SW OWY 65 SSW TWF 35 NNW ENV 35 NE ELY 60 SSW ELY
30 E TPH 20 NE BIH 40 SSE BIH NID DAG 30 WNW TRM 25 NNW SAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 30 S SAD
20 W SOW 65 WNW GUP 40 ESE DRO 40 N SAF 15 W ROW 20 S INK 20 N ABI
15 SSE DEC 20 WNW FDY 15 NNE CMH 10 WNW HTS 15 NW CHA 10 E ELD 60 N
HOU 40 SSE SAT 15 NW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LWR OH VLY...
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
SUPPORT TSTMS IN THE LWR OH VLY/MID MS VLY VCNTY THE WARM FRONT.  A
COUPLE OF THESE TSTMS BECAME SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MODEST WSWLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /40 KTS 0-6KM/.  MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
COUPLED WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 WERE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLD TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING GIVEN ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AND THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY
OVERNIGHT...ON THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ.  THESE TSTMS WILL BE
OF A MORE ELEVATED CHARACTER AND COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. 
BUT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

...SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 50S ADVECTED NWD INTO SERN AZ/SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY
ATTRIBUTED TO REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE SRN GULF OF CA. 
HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF POWERFUL W COAST
TROUGH WERE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  ISOLD TSTMS
BECAME ORGANIZED WITHIN THE 55 KT 0-6KM SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT STABILIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

...CA...
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BENEATH
MINUS 26C COLD POOL OVER NRN/CNTRL CA. AS A RESULT...ANY HAIL RISKS
WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE.

OTHERWISE...FRONTAL RAINBAND HAS SLOWED OVER ACROSS SRN CA.  A FEW
EMBEDDED STRONGER REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED MOVING INTO NWRN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS ONCE EXPECTED.  ALSO...AIR MASS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
AS UNSTABLE.  THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.

..RACY.. 10/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.