[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261257
SWODY1
SPC AC 261255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB
45 SSE GLH 50 E ELD 25 SE TXK 20 ESE ACT 10 SE SAT 20 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 35 NE PDX
65 SE DLS 10 SSW WMC 45 S TVL 10 E FAT 25 E BFL 20 S PMD 35 SSW RAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 NE PHX
60 SE PGA 35 NNE 4BL 40 NNE DRO 10 SSW LVS 15 NNW DHT 45 ESE LAA 30
NE AKO 20 N AIA 45 SSE RAP PHP 25 NNE ANW 10 SSW GRI 15 SSW OMA 45
SW FOD 20 SSE MKT 60 N EAU 40 SE RHI 10 SSW GRB 25 NNE MKE 10 NE BEH
20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS 30 NNW CHA 20 NW BHM 30 SE MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY SPREADING
A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL CA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD
TOWARD LAX THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT ADVECTS SWD. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
MULTICELL STORMS WHICH WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. THE
STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL
CONSIDERING THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. AS THE BAND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND SFC TEMPS WARM
UP...A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING 0-6 KM SHEAR
WILL EXCEED 50 KT. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
REACHING 25 KT IN THE LA VICINITY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

...MID-MS VALLEY...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS AND
WRN MO. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE
MID-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
NRN OZARKS...FARTHER SOUTH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP
INTO THE 80S F IN FAR SE MO AND ERN AR. THIS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. AS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NE OK AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVES NEWD...NEW STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WOULD PROMOTE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AND
THIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.

..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.