[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260451
SWODY1
SPC AC 260449

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 35 NE PDX
20 E DLS 25 WSW WMC 45 S TVL 35 SSE FAT 25 WSW BFL 25 NW RAL 35 SSW
RAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB
45 SSE GLH 50 E ELD 25 SE TXK 20 ESE ACT 10 SE SAT 20 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 NE PHX
60 SE PGA 20 NW 4BL 50 ENE DRO 50 WSW RTN 30 WNW CAO LAA 25 WNW AKO
20 N BFF 40 N CDR 35 E RAP 10 N VTN 10 SSW GRI 15 SSW OMA 45 SW FOD
20 NW MKT 65 ENE STC 50 NNE EAU 20 NW VOK 25 WSW JVL 15 W SBN 20 NW
FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS CHA 15 ENE GAD 10 WSW PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK.  A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SWD ALONG THE W COAST WILL EDGE INLAND
OVER WRN/CNTRL CA TUESDAY.  DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WAVE TRAIN OF SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES RIDING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID-MS VLY.  

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NWRN CA WILL MOVE
S AND E...REACHING THE SIERRA AND NEAR THE LA BASIN BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT OVER OK/AR WILL MOVE NEWD
THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MS VLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  BOTH THE
FRONT IN THE WEST AND IN THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
THE FOCI FOR TSTMS. 

...CA...
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER NRN CA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET /H5 TEMPERATURES BELOW MINUS 25C/
MOVE INLAND.  ANY HEATING IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTAIN
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS.  HIGHER RISKS FOR
HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST FROM KSFO NWD SINCE THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL HUG THE COAST.

ELSEWHERE...PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY AUGMENT STORM
ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE FRONTAL RAINBAND AS IT MOVES E INTO THE
CNTRL VLYS AND S INTO SRN CA LATE TUESDAY.  SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM... THOUGH HEATING
WILL BE MITIGATED BY CLOUDS.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SANTA
BARBARA/LOS ANGELES COASTS.  ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A 2-4 HOUR
PERIOD WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME ENLARGED WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2.  THUS...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT ISOLD TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  

...MID MS VLY...
ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST AIR MASS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPORTING AREAS OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO MO BY EARLY TUESDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL. HOWEVER...TO THE S OF THIS MORNING
ACTIVITY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT INSOLATION COULD RESULT IN
STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
MS VLY.  IF THIS KIND OF BUOYANCY IS REALIZED...REGION WILL BE
LOCATED IN 40-45 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COULD RESULT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. 
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK DOES NOT
SEEM JUSTIFIED ATTM.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.