[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251257
SWODY1
SPC AC 251255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 40 NW PDX
25 N MFR 20 S MHS 55 NNE SAC 10 WNW SCK MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 25 SSE BTR
45 SE POE 40 NW BPT 45 S CLL 30 SSE SAT 25 NE COT 40 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 30 ENE PHX
30 ESE FLG 40 SE PGA 60 NNE BCE 20 NW U24 SLC 45 WNW RKS 50 NNW RWL
50 SSW DGW 20 SW FCL 60 W COS 50 SSE ALS 20 NNW LVS 30 ESE LVS 30
ENE TCC 35 ESE LBL 15 S HUT 20 SW FNB 55 ENE OMA 30 SSE FOD 10 ENE
CID 25 NW PIA 10 SW PIA 45 W MDH 20 WNW MKL 25 E BHM 35 E DHN 20 S
TLH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN OK/WRN AR/NE TX...
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MESO-LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK. A MOIST TONGUE
EXTENDS NWD ACROSS NE TX AND ERN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F. TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAK CAP
SHOULD HELP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ACROSS ERN
OK AND WRN AR. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY
BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY DRIFT NEWD INTO SRN MO AND NRN AR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE MS VALLEY TODAY AND THIS IS SHUNTING THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW NW OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN OK SHOW
25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG
MULTICELL STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
10,000 FEET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK
FORCING...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE APPEARS LIMITED ATTM.

...WEST AND NCNTRL TX/WRN OK...
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWWD
INTO WEST TX TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY BUT FARTHER NW...A CAPPING INVERSION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF WEST TX.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE MTNS OF WEST
TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WRN HILL COUNTRY AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO...HELPING THE
STORMS TO RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS WEST TX REACHING WRN OK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LUBBOCK AT 06Z SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL DECREASE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 
OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.  THE
BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE TRANSPECOS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE WIND DAMAGE
AND/OR HAIL THREAT MINIMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.