[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251556
SWODY1
SPC AC 251555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S TUS 25 ENE GCN
55 W P38 65 WSW ELY 55 W OGD 40 ESE JAC 55 SSW GCC 30 NE CYS 45 WSW
COS 40 WNW TAD GCK 25 S ICT 15 WSW TOP 35 ESE OMA 40 NNW BRL 20 W
SPI 30 SSE HSV 25 NE AQQ ...CONT... 25 NNE BVE 30 WSW ESF 15 SSW CLL
15 WSW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CLM 35 ESE AST
25 NNE MHS 20 NW SFO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVE NNEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...STRONG UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESEWD
AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

...TX INTO THE OZARK REGION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO
CENTRAL OK TODAY...WHILE WRN END CONTINUES A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT INTO
SERN NM AND W-CENTRAL TX.  WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE
FROM THE BIG BEND REGION NNEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX...WITH A 5F
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS IT LATE THIS MORNING. AS LEADING
WEAK IMPULSE /CURRENTLY SUPPORTING CONVECTION FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
INTO N-CENTRAL TX/ CONTINUES NEWD...AND HEATING ALLOWS MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONT INTO ERN OK/AR/MO WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AS
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMIT HAIL GROWTH. 
FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HEATING/INSTABILITY ALONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
APPROACHING OUT OF NRN MEXICO. THUS...CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO NWRN TX/OK WILL POSE ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.