[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250436
SWODY1
SPC AC 250434

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 40 NW PDX
25 N MFR 20 S MHS 55 NNE SAC 10 WNW SCK MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 25 SSE BTR
40 SE POE 25 NNE HOU 45 N VCT 30 S SAT 40 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 25 ENE PHX
30 ESE FLG 40 SE PGA 60 NNE BCE 35 NE U24 SLC 45 WNW RKS 45 NNW RWL
45 S DGW 20 SW FCL 60 W COS 50 SSE ALS 20 NNW LVS 30 ESE LVS 30 ENE
TCC 25 SE LBL 30 SSW ICT 25 SW FNB 40 SW FOD CID 15 NW PIA 45 W MDH
20 WNW MKL 25 E BHM 35 E DHN 20 S TLH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL OCCUR MONDAY.  JET
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK INTO THE WRN
STATES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER MOST OF THE ERN STATES. 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH...A SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL CARRY A
DISTURBANCE FROM SRN BAJA ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A
WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING MONDAY.  A RATHER
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THESE TROUGHS WITH PROSPECTS FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS.

...SRN PLAINS...
PRIMARY WARM FRONT THAT WAS TEMPORARILY DELAYED FROM RETURNING NWD
BY SUNDAY'S CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE INTO NRN TX ON
MONDAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT
AVAILABILITY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SUGGESTS THAT ISOLD TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...BUT COMBINATION OF WEAKER VERTICAL
SHEAR AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND QUESTIONS ON MAGNITUDE OF HEATING
WILL KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW.

MEANWHILE...STRONGER HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY AUGMENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SWRN TX
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE.  MLCAPES TO 1500
J/KG AND DEEP WSWLY SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS.  BUT...POOR MID-HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT RISKS
FOR HAIL WILL BE LOW.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED
AS WELL.

00Z GFS/ETA DISAGREE ON WHERE THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/PCPN
WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT.  21Z SPC SREF IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE 00Z ETA AND HAS BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWED.  ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD
EXPAND/DEVELOP NEWD FROM SWRN TX INTO OK...AR AND PARTS OF MO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF BOTH THE SUB-TROPICAL AND NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. 
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN POINTS FARTHER SW AND
GIVEN INFLUX OF 12-14C H85 DEW POINTS AND AMPLE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.