[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250046
SWODY1
SPC AC 250044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF BGS SPS 30
E MLC 45 ESE FSM 10 WSW LIT PBF 50 ENE ELD 15 E MLU 25 WSW MCB 35
SSE GPT ...CONT... 10 W GLS 15 WNW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SCNTRL TX INTO WCNTRL LA...
WEAK SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND
HEATING PROVED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL TX
TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AR/LA LATER THIS EVENING.  
STRONGEST TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD THROUGH ECNTRL TX
INTO WCNTRL LA ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
EXISTS.  ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...DECREASING INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE STORMS.

FARTHER SW...TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING INTO SCNTRL TX TOWARD THE
RIO GRANDE WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
WEAKENING GIVEN PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL REMAINS
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH
HAIL/HIGH WINDS.  THESE TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

21Z RUC/18Z ETA SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS
DEVELOPING FARTHER N IN NERN TX INTO SERN OK AND SWRN AR IS LOW. 
EVEN IF TSTMS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS.

..RACY.. 10/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.