[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241630
SWODY1
SPC AC 241628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DUG 15 N DMN ROW
50 WNW CDS 20 WSW OKC 20 SW FSM 30 SSW HOT 20 SSW MLU 35 ESE MCB 10
SSW PNS ...CONT... 45 S CRP 25 W MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BFL 20 SSW MER
35 NNE SAC 25 ESE SVE 20 SE WMC 35 ESE EKO 40 SW DPG 30 NNE MLF 35
SE MLF 20 E SGU 55 E NID 20 W BFL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL/SWRN TX WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AND AID FOCUSING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SRN PLAINS. LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO PROXIMITY TO UPPER
RIDGE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL/SRN TX AND FAR SWRN LA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD REGION OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NRN MX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME MINIMIZED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NRN TX HAS BECOME SSELY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SERN CO. THEREFORE COVERAGE OF DEEP SFC
BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL TX. WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6-6.5 DEG C/KM
DUE TO MOIST SWLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE/WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. THEREFORE...DESPITE
30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...OVERALL
THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

...SWRN TX NEWD INTO SCENTRAL OK...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS
OF SWRN TX AND ADJACENT PERMIAN BASIN...AHEAD OF NRN MX SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AGAIN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ABOVE RETREATING WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM SWRN TX ACROSS NCENTRAL TX INTO FAR SCENTRAL OK. SLIGHTLY
STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO SOMEWHAT COLDER/DRIER MID LEVELS
WILL SUPPORT A LOW END THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
WEAK CLOUD BEARING SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL PRECLUDE
GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT.

..CROSBIE/EVANS.. 10/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.