[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241224
SWODY1
SPC AC 241222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DMN 30 SW ALM
ROW 10 S PVW 65 WSW SPS 25 SW ADM 20 WSW MLC 35 SE FSM 15 NE HOT 45
WSW PBF 20 SSW MLU 10 WSW LUL 35 SSW TOI 20 NE MAI 15 ESE PFN
...CONT... 45 S CRP 25 W MFE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT A
RELATIVE MINIMUM ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

MID/UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD/
EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. 
CONTINUED EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST FOR
LATER TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN STATES.  THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT TO THE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  FRONT CURRENTLY CURVES FROM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE OCCLUSION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TODAY.

...GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
AHEAD OF FRONT...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH
BROADER SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CONFLUENT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME HAS TEMPORARILY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI. THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD MIDDAY...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  COOL/DRY
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING ATLANTIC COAST
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA.

...TEXAS...
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT 
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF DISSIPATING
FRONTAL ZONE...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS.  THOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE RESTRICTED BY CLOUD COVER...MODELS SUGGEST
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GIVEN INSTABILITY...WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL JET MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  JET CURRENTLY CURVES IN BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC ARC OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE
GULF STATES...AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF BAJA.  WHILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER
WARM/MOIST...ISOLATED VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED WET
DOWNBURST IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...BUT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH...FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS.  MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK TOPPING BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

..KERR/JEWELL.. 10/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.