[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240447
SWODY1
SPC AC 240445

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 25 W MFE
...CONT... 40 SE DMN 30 SW ALM ROW 10 S PVW 65 WSW SPS 25 SW ADM 20
WSW MLC 35 SE FSM 15 NE HOT 45 WSW PBF 10 W MLU 15 NNE HEZ 25 ESE
LUL 50 NNW PNS 10 WNW PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WRN STATES SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...ADVECTING WARMTH/MOISTURE NWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL ALSO TAP INTO SUB-TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO CNTRL TX SUNDAY NIGHT.  TSTMS
ARE APT TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX TO
AR.

...CNTRL TX TO SW AR...
AS THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN STATES
TROUGH...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD FROM MEXICO OVER
MOST OF TX SUNDAY.  THIS MAY HAMPER INSOLATION...BUT RETURN OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH 6.5 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPES ACROSS CNTRL TX. 
THOUGH ISOLD TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/WEAK
FRONT...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AND PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION ARE NOT HIGH. GIVEN A SUSTAINED STORM...HOWEVER
...THE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN AN
INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME FROM CNTRL/NRN TX INTO SWRN
AR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND ONLY ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.